The Pakistan factor in Indian elections

As India steps into the polling booth, the ghost of Pakistan is peering from around the corner. It lurks in the voter’s mind like a silent poltergeist you don’t see, but that influences events anyway. That said, it would be a mistake to think of this year’s election as a Pakistan-centric election. Yes, terrorism and security matter. But jobs matter more. Youth matters more. Local issues are important. Caste is a game-changing issue.

The first phase of the Lok Sabha (the lower house of parliament) elections ended last week. All indicators show that there are two things uppermost on India’s mind as it pushes the button on the electronic voting machine: the economy and security. It is to the second that Pakistan is now inextricably linked, as far as India is concerned.

Two barbaric attacks, spaced virtually a generation apart, have shaped Indians’ perception of Pakistan. The first were the March 12, 1993, serial bombings in Mumbai. The second was the more recent terror strike on November 26, 2008. There is a genuine worry that the guy next door is about to blow himself up and some of the embers may land on our house. After all, we share a border that’s 2,308 kilometres long. The Line of Control stretches along 740 kilometres. And Kashmir is a flashpoint.

But there is a change that has come about in the 15 years that separate the two worst terrorist attacks in Indian history. Pakistan matters, but only to an extent. There is a kind of laissez-faire approach to it, almost as if, as one colleague put it, ‘it’s there and you live with it.’ It’s part of the mix in voters’ minds, but not the dominant issue.

The Hindustan Times, Mumbai, conducted two separate surveys to gauge the mood in India’s financial capital. The first one was across demographic sections and age groups. When asked what the most important poll issue is, 35 per cent said it was the economy. Security came second at 31 per cent, followed by stability (19 per cent) and infrastructure (15 per cent). There was also a strong opinion that younger members of parliament were the need of the hour. And an average of 74 per cent said local issues should be a priority for the new MPs.

In the second survey, conducted only in the 18- to 35-year age bracket, the economy mattered to even more people — 45 percent. Security came a distant second at 29 percent. This survey is in a way more critical than the first because, this year, 4.3 crore of the 71.4 crore voters are first-timers. As you can see, Pakistan isn’t top of mind.

Indians have reacted very differently to the November 26 attacks from the way most expected them to. Instead of an across-the-board demand for retribution, Indians have turned the microscope on their own system and the people they elected.

Vir Sanghvi, Hindustan Times’ editorial director, explains this wonderfully well on his website in a post dated April 7: ‘I can think of few societies where an attack — clearly planned and launched by a hostile neighbour — should not result in a desire for war. Instead, India spent its time working out what went wrong and in looking for those who failed in their duty to protect our cities and our civilians.’

Sanghvi explains it this way: ‘Indians are used to terrorism. It no longer shocks us as it once did. Nor are we startled by the recognition that Pakistan might be involved. We have come to accept this as a part of our lives. We are not like the United States before 9/11, secure in some cocoon, believing that nobody can touch us.…’

India has begun asking tough questions of those in power. For weeks after the attack, there were public protests in various cities. TV channels were flooded with images of people demanding more accountability and a greater say in governance. Cyberspace is overflowing with voter-registration campaigns as well as those for responsible voting. Several people who have not had any political experience or affiliation have jumped into the electoral fray, hoping to make a difference, including ABN Amro chairperson and country executive Meera Sanyal in Mumbai and danseuse Mallika Sarabhai in Gandhinagar, the capital of Gujarat.

The terror attacks were, of course, a catalyst for a sentiment that had been simmering for long. Public resentment against ineffective governance had been a problem for years; November 26 was merely the last straw. It is telling that the outcry that followed wasn’t terror-centric – all sorts of issues were raised, from corruption to infrastructure. So, even if Pakistan can’t claim to dominate mindshare during this election, it has indirectly made a difference. The 26/11 terror, which India is certain arrived from its neighbour’s shore, has strengthened our democracy by awakening the spirit of public participation in governance.

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